By Global payments revenue is projected to grow to $2.4 trillion by 2029, according to new research from Boston Consulting Group (BCG). While growth is expected to moderate to 4% annually over the next five years, the industry is undergoing a foundational reset as agentic AI, digital currencies, and fintech business models begin to shape the next wave of expansion.
These findings come from BCG’s 23rd annual Global Payments Report, The Future Is (Anything but) Stable, released today.
The report draws on BCG’s proprietary Global Payments Model and includes forecasts and market dynamics across more than 60 economies, including South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Morocco, and Egypt, accounting for more than 90% of global GDP.
It identifies five structural forces reshaping the payments landscape: the rise of agentic AI, digital currencies such as stablecoins, fintech disruption, real-time account-to-account (A2A) systems, and the enduring importance of cost transformation.
“This is a turning point for the industry,” said Inderpreet Batra, BCG managing director and senior partner and global head of the firm’s payments and fintech segment. “Traditional growth levers are losing force, but new drivers including agentic systems, programmable money, and fintech innovation are rapidly coming into focus. The players that align to these shifts now will lead the next decade.”
Among the key findings of the 2025 report:
· Global payments revenue reached $1.9 trillion in 2024, but future growth will slow. After growing at 8.8% annually since 2019, revenue expansion is expected to ease to 4% annually to $2.4 trillion by 2029. Africa’s payments revenue is expected to grow at approximately 10% CAGR, reaching $19 billion by 2029 (up from $9 billion in 2024).
· Aligned to this, transaction-based revenues remain strong, while deposit margin tailwinds slacken. Looking at overall growth (transaction-related and non-transaction-related revenue combined), Transaction revenues are the primary growth driver in Nigeria and across Africa, growing at double-digit rates and outpacing Europe (3.5%), North America (3.4%), and Asia-Pacific (3.3%).
· Nigeria’s payments revenues are forecast to rise from $1.3 billion in 2024 to $4.7 billion in 2029, with an impressive CAGR of 23% for transaction revenues and 26% for non-transaction revenues.
· Agentic AI is set to influence over $1 trillion in e-commerce spending. According to BCG research, 81% of US consumers expect to use agentic AI tools to shop, which will shape more than half of all online purchases in the near future.
· Stablecoins reached $26 trillion in volume, although real-world payments account for only 1% of that total. The market remains heavily concentrated in facilitating crypto trading.
· Payments fintechs generated $176 billion in revenue in 2024 and are growing at 23% annually. Payments-focused fintechs have attracted over $135 billion in equity funding over the past 25 years and now make up 45% of total fintech revenue. The top performers are growing three times as fast as incumbents.
· Real-time A2A payment volumes rose 40% globally in 2024. These systems now account for around a quarter of digital retail payments worldwide, even exceeding 50% of transactions in selected markets like India and Brazil. In the Middle East and Africa, where real-time systems are still emerging, adoption is projected to reach more than 50% by 2030. Nigeria’s NIP system is at the core of its modernisation agenda.
· Nigeria is one of the key African markets, where fintech innovation, including mobile onboarding, POS, and QR adoption, is accelerating the shift from cash to digital—positioning Africa as a payments growth engine compared to mature global markets.
“We’re entering an era where growth and complexity go hand in hand,” said Markus Ampenberger, BCG managing director and partner. “The next winners in payments won’t just be fast adopters of technology. They will be the firms that deeply integrate new capabilities into business and operating models, and customer value propositions.”
“As Africa’s payments sector accelerates toward double-digit growth, Nigeria is driving innovation and digital adoption at scale,” says Tolu Oyekan, Managing Director and Partner, BCG Lagos.
“With the Central Bank’s Vision 2025 and fintech-led advances like mobile onboarding and QR adoption, Nigeria’s payments revenues are set to grow rapidly, fueled by the shift from cash to cards and real-time transfers. This progress is not only boosting financial inclusion and opportunity within Nigeria but also underscores the continent’s emergence as a global payments innovation leader.”
